“Snowmageddon v.2” Update

*UPDATE – 6:00 PM EST 1/21/2016*

The first major winter storm for millions across the Northeast is on its way.  This storm is expected to create blizzard conditions from Connecticut to Virginia and travel delays lasting hours or days from JFK to Reagan Natl.

*The National Weather Service in Upton New York has issued Winter Storm and Blizzard Watches for parts of the New York City Metropolitan Area. Locations in southern portions of Connecticut can expect alerts ranging from Winter Weather Advisories to Blizzard Warnings over the following 24 hours.*

*UPDATE*-  The short range computer models are now in range of this storm and have continued to flip-flop on their positions over the past 18 hours.  The NAM (12 KM) is now calling for the storm to ride further up the Eastern Seaboard and bring over two feet of snow to almost the entire NYC Metro Area.  Other short range computer models such as the WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and the RGEM are slowly inching their forecasts further north.  More shifting and settling with more northerly forecasts can be expected over the following day or so as the low pressure that will become this “Snowmageddon V.2” stays closer to the north end of all the previous tracks.

Specific and detailed updates for your area can be found on weather.gov

 

Hurricane Alex Forms in Atlantic, Earliest Since 1938

Hurricane Alex formed in the Northeastern Atlantic today, and is set to impact the Azores Islands overnight into tomorrow.  Hurricane Alex has sustained winds of 85 MPH and is churning due north at 22 MPH.  After impacting the Azores, Alex will become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves to the northwest rapidly.  Alex will end up, most likely as a post-tropical storm or remnant low, near the Northeastern Canadian Maritime or around southern portions of the Greenland Maritime.

US Snow Update: Across the Northeast, more nor’easters can be expected, especially in early to late February, when cold air may mix in to create significant snow events.  In other locations across the United States, more of the same is to be expected in the short term, but there is the potential for a small snow event in and around southern Oklahoma/ northern Texas over the weekend, according to the GFS, the CMC, and the ECMWF computer models.

 

Final Preliminary January Forecast

Using several different long range computer models, we have concluded that there will likely be a about a 1 degree increase from the average temperatures across the NYC Metro Area in January, along with a slight increase, of about half an inch, of precipitation.

What this means that there will likely be a slightly elevated amount of wintry precipitation across the area.

More information will be posted shortly.

First Snowfall in and around New York City!

The unofficial start winter was today across many locations north and west of NYC.  Although no measurable snowfall was recorded, locations from in and around Poughkeepsie to as far south as Salem, Peekskill, and even some locations in western Connecticut, experienced flurries and light snow showers a good one to two months ahead of time.

Why the snow?

Although temperatures in and around the NYC Metro Area were generally higher than freezing at the time of the snow, the temperature in the atmosphere was a bit cooler than freezing, which allowed fast-falling snow to reach the ground before it melted in-air.

Due to the above freezing temperatures of the ground though, many of these snowflakes melted within 30 seconds of contact with the ground.

(The official start of Meteorological Winter is December 1st, and the start of the season Winter is generally considered December 21st.)