Tag: Hurricane Season 2015

SOON TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TO IMPACT THE TEXAS COASTLINE

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INVEST 90L IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

In less than 3 days, current Invest 90L is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Depression or Storm and make landfall somewhere between Galveston, Texas, and the Louisiana border.  This storm is expected to not only bring some wind and some storm surge threats, but this storm will bring in enough moisture to cause intense rains and thunderstorms that may cause flooding.

Here’s a look at the GFS’s forecasted amount of  precipitation

GFS forecasted amount of rain for soon to be tropical depression two

As you can see, over the next 5 or so days, the moisture from the current Invest 90L will make its way through the central United States, before dumping the last of its rain on the majority of the Northeast and portions of Southeastern Canada.  Be on the lookout for heavy rains mid to late week next week in and around NYC.

For more information on Invest 90L, go to our Hurricanes page, and for emergency information for floods or tropical cyclone watches or warnings please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and weather.gov.

NHC ups the odds for tropical development in the Gulf

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The NHC has increased the odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.  This morning, the odds for tropical entity development in the Gulf of Mexico according to the NHC has been raised to about 20% over the next five days.  This area of tropical disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and drift into the central, western Gulf of Mexico, where it will have the opportunity to develop and strengthen (slightly), before moving over land somewhere on the United States Gulf of Mexico shore.

There are several different outcomes that may occur for this tropical disturbance.   Outcome one: The GFS computer model along with the ECMWF (The European computer model) are expecting this storm to stay as a weak tropical wave and only bring some moisture and wind to the Gulf Coast.                                                                                   Outcome two: This outcome, mainly promoted by the CMC computer model with some others, suggests that the disturbance will develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast (likely somewhere in between New Orleans and Brownsville (TX).

At the moment, tropical development is still not extremely likely, but we will keep an eye on this storm over the next several days.

Another disturbance forming in the Atlantic?

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has created a watch area for a clump of thunderstorms beginning to develop a very weak low pressure.  The computer models have been suggesting that this clump of thunderstorms may develop and grow into some sort of tropical entity and bring some rain and wind to unknown portions of the western Gulf of Mexico Coast.

At the moment, we have not made an official prediction because the NHC is keeping this disturbance’s odds of development at 10%, although once this disturbance’s odds of development do come up, you can look for our official location and intensity forecast on our Hurricanes page.

NHC 5DAY CHART 6 12 15

This is the graphic set out to the public by the National Hurricane Center pertaining to today’s weather conditions across the Tropical Atlantic Basin.

We’ll keep you posted as more information on this disturbance arrives.

Slow start to the second full week of Hurricane Season 2015

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As Hurricane Season 2015 approaches the two and a half week mark, there is still no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  Besides Ana about a month ago now, there has been NO tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

Why the slow start?

Well, in general, the peak of Hurricane Season is in early September, and if you look at your calendar right now, that is still about a whole 3 months away.  Anyways, June is normally not the most active month of any Hurricane Season, but from here on out to September, the probability of tropical development will be (on a historical average) increasing.  Not only this, but also at the moment there is no tropical enhancement wave (to put it more simply) over any portion of the Atlantic ocean.

That’s all for now, and we’ll keep you updated as Hurricane Season 2015 progresses!

The earliest landfall of a tropical cyclone on the Baja California in recorded history

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Hurricane Blanca, now Tropical Storm Blanca, and soon to be Tropical Depression Blanca, has made landfall on the Baja California north of Cabo San Lucas with winds of about 50 miles an hour, which has created some rough surf and dangerous rip currents in an around the area.

Tropical Storm Blanca was only about 48 hours ago a massive category three, major hurricane, with winds over 130 miles an hour, but due to the lower water temperatures near the Baja California, the storm rapidly weakened and will continue this weakening trend until becoming a remnant low that will bring some moisture to portions of the lower US, and possibly could have a slight affect on the Northeast, but nothing terribly significant.

ALERT!

Areas in and around NYC have TORNADO WATCHES posted.  A TORNADO WATCH means that conditions over a large portion of land are more favorable than average for the development of tornadoes, please check with the National Weather Service (NWS) on weather.gov for specific watches and warnings that may affect you.

Hurricane Season 2015 UPDATE, and the heat wave update for NYC

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Officially at least, the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season has started, but, unless a major storm (or at least the first significant disturbance) develops, there is not much to talk about in terms of tropical cyclones.  For the first time in a very long time, the Tropical Atlantic Basin has received its first tropical cyclone before the Eastern Pacific has.

Now for the update on the heat wave in New York City and the Tri-State Area…

With temperatures in the 80’s and humidity percentages close to 99%, the majority of those going outdoors will likely feel fairly hot and sweaty.  The heat index in some areas (how hot it actually feels) is in the 90’s.  For those who are sensitive to the extreme heat, please heed all advisories set out by the National Weather Service (NWS.)

Stay hydrated and be safe!

TROPICAL STORM ANA MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH/NORTH CAROLINA

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The 50 MPH Tropical Storm Ana has just made landfall in South/North Carolina, bringing with it, rain, thunderstorms, and some storm surge.  Tropical Storm Ana is the first storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and is also one of the earliest landfalls by a Tropical Cyclone on record. With Hurricane Season starting in over 20 days, some are now wondering how severe this upcoming season will be now… (this information can be found here at Weather 360.)

Where is Ana heading now?

083430W5_NL_sm(NHC prediction cone from earlier this morning.)

Where is Ana heading now?  Well, according to this NHC prediction cone, Ana is making landfall right now in South/North Carolina, (the border of), and will soon lose its Tropical Storm characteristics, but will remain as a Tropical Depression (Ana) with winds of about 30 MPH up until impacting southern New England and Long Island with some waves and some wind (and some rain.)

Weather 360 will keep you posted, stay safe!

Where’s soon-to-be Ana heading?

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Have a look at our graphic, the red line on the coast means that imminent landfall is expected in the next two days.

Map of Ana 5 7 15 2019 PM EST UTC -4Map of Ana 5 7 15 2019 PM EST UTC -4

Our graphic shows Invest 90L, which will then likely be Ana, moving into the SC/NC coastline, but due to the current run of the European computer model, we are having this storm ride up the coast a bit further, then veering out to sea before having a chance to make landfall in New York and New England.

At the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is saying there is a 90% chance of development for this Invest 90L over the next 2 days.  Due to this storm being more associated with the Jet Stream, this storm will likely be first classified as a Sub-Tropical Storm, but don’t be fooled by the “Sub”, these storms are the equivalent of a regular Tropical Storm, and if they break free of whatever holds them back, can quickly strengthen.

For preparedness tips for this storm, consult the NHC or your local emergency management center to stay safe.

Stay safe and be prepared!

WATCH OUT! Tropical Storm Ana to form soon!

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Over the next few hours, the very well defined and string tropical disturbance near the coast of the Carolinas may develop into a strong tropical storm.  With sustained winds already hitting 50 MPH and a very closed and well defined center of circulation, the NHC will have to begin issuing watches and warnings for the coastal areas of the Southeast (and even potentially the rest of the East Coast.)  This storm’s intensity will likely stay as a medium to strong Tropical Storm, and will likely track up through the edges of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean near Long Island, before likely veering off to the east with the high pressures.

Have our look at the following graphic from Weather 360, the yellow means potential landfall locations from this storm.  We apologize for the clarity of the following image.

Untitled

IF YOU live on or near the coast of the Carolinas, please take IMMEDIATE ACTION according to the NHC and YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CENTER.  Please take all appropriate actions suggested by both your local center and the NHC to keep you and your property safe from the storm.

Be smart, and stay safe!

INVEST 90L FORMS NEAR FLORIDA, MODELS HAVE THIS HEADING NORTH

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The computer models in a way have shifted overnight, instead of a track more into South Carolina, the majority of the computer models are suggesting that  this storm will likely impact northern parts of South Carolina, and mostly coastal areas in North Carolina.

What is this talk about Invest 90L heading northwards?

The computer models are beginning to suggest that Invest 90L has the potential to become a Tropical Storm before landfall, but also some of the models are also beginning to suggest that this storm could impact the Outer Banks, then move further northward as a weak Tropical Depression and merge with an incoming system to bring more rain to the Northeast United States.

Weather 360 urges anyone living on or near the coast in areas that may be impacted by this storm later on this week to at least think about potentially evacuating due to storm surge and flooding or having an emergency hurricane kit, which is shown in an example on the side of this page.  Please though, BEFORE you make any decisions, consult the NHC’s website, nhc.noaa.gov, to see what plan is best for you.