Tag: Atlantic Hurricane Season

Potential tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, SOON!

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Now with the support of several other major computer models, the ECMWF and the GFS computer models still suggest that some type of a tropical cyclone may occur near the eastern seaboard over the next few days.  This potential storm’s worst case scenario is being forecasted by a major computer model known as the CMC, which depicts a strong tropical storm or a category one hurricane impacting areas such as North Carolina with heavy rains, winds, and some storm surge.  Keep in mind, this is the current worst case scenario and is no more likely than there being a weaker storm off the coast, (again at the moment.)  Other computer models such as again the GFS, suggest a tropical cyclone, likely a tropical storm, off the eastern coast and veering out into the ocean in between the Carolinas and Bermuda.

For now, stay aware, and stay safe!

3…2…1 HAPPY HURRICANE SEASON, well in about 30 days…

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Why the title one may ask?  Well, it’s because over the past several days the GFS and the ECMWF computer models have been hinting at the development of a tropical disturbance soon near the eastern coast of the United States.  (Also, this hurricane season, although expected to be below average, could potentially not be very happy for some…)

The potential storm does not look like, at the moment, to be a threat to the coastline, but since this storm has survived the changes of the computer models over the past several days, we will continue to update you when more significant developments occur.

For anyone who would like to know, this storm does not appear to be, again at the moment, to strengthen into a full fledged hurricane, but we will update you as the forecasts become clearer and clearer.

The Weather Channel releases another below average Hurricane Season 2015 forecast

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This time around it is still the same, a below average Hurricane Season 2015…

The Weather Channel has just released their April Hurricane Season forecast calling for 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane.  This, according to their article on their website about their newest forecast, implies that an El Nino, which normally inhibits Tropical Atlantic Basin cyclones, will have a large role to play in this year’s amount of tropical cyclones.

Weather 360 has been looking at the longer range forecasts, the April forecasts made by places such as Colorado State and TSR, and large factors already showing themselves in the Atlantic and Pacific, and we have been starting to see a growing potential for a less active Hurricane Season.

That’s all for now and we’ll keep you up to date on all of the latest developments on this Hurricane Season.

Thunderstorms are coming!

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Over the next several hours thunderstorms will begin to develop in the New York City metro area.  Some of these storms could produce large hail and damaging winds,  so please if you are caught in a severe storm take cover immediately to avoid any injury.  Today there’s also the potential for flash flooding across all low lying areas and in areas near rivers or streams.  Later today there’s also the potential for gusty winds to cause some downed trees and power outages.  Be aware that at almost any time the National Weather Service may issue an advisory, a watch, or a warning.

Hurricane Season 2015

Although most of the major sources for forecasting the next hurricane season have been predicting a quiet, below average hurricane season, Weather 360 would like to remind everyone that it only takes one hurricane landfall to make a big difference across a wide area that could be anywhere on the Atlantic Basin coast from Maine to Texas.

Stay safe!

NCSU, the TSR, and Colorado state all forecasting a quiet Hurricane Season

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According to all the sources’ listed above April forecasts, there will be a below average Hurricane Season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin.  The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) program is predicting anywhere in between 8 and 15 total named storms, 3 to 9 hurricanes, and of which 1 to 4 would be major hurricanes.  What the TSR is predicting though is overall a 20% less active Hurricane Season than the historical long range average.

Here is what the overall highest percentage expectancy for all the sources mentioned (put together by Wikipedia)

TSR April 9, 2015 11 5 2
CSU April 9, 2015 7 3 1
NCSU April 13, 2015 4–6 1–3 1

An average Hurricane Season looks something more like this:

12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

So, you can see that there is some uncertainty in the exact number of storms there will be this Hurricane Season, but what all these programs are still urging is for anyone and everyone on or near the coast to be prepared for a possible hurricane strike, because it only takes one to create mass devastation.

Tropical cyclone in the Atlantic possible soon… BUT IN MAY?!!

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For those who may not know, the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st and ends on November 30th.

Although this is only one computer model (GFS) and the latest possible hour run (384 hrs in advance), a possible tropical disturbance in one model still can, even if it is very far out, remind everyone that Hurricane Season is approaching.

Wait, what? The GFS model is predicting a tropical cyclone soon?

Well, at the moment since the time frame is extremely far our, this does not look likely, but the latest run of the GFS computer model for 384 hours is showing a small and weak disturbance near the Puerto Rico to the north.  DO NOT, WE REPEAT, DO NOT, TAKE THIS AS A 100% GUARANTEE, because at the moment, the odds of this are extremely low.  The point of this message though, is that Hurricane Season is literally around the corner, and that even outside of the Hurricane Season there still is the possibility for some tropical activity.

Weather 360 will keep you posted as more information comes out, but remember, at the moment, what the GFS computer model is showing has an extremely low chance of being anything significant.  Although, it still is never to early to prepare for Hurricane Season if you live on the coast.

More on Hurricane Season 2015

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As said in the previous post, according to the first seasonal outlook by Colorado State on this year’s Hurricane Season, there will be a below average Hurricane Season.  Although this source has been very accurate in the past, DO NOT,  DO NOT, take this as the final predictions for the upcoming Hurricane Season.  There are still many other sources to release their forecasts and even more forecasts from the same sources to come out over the next couple of months.

Weather 360 is still thinking that this Hurricane Season will be closer to average due to the fact that the El Nino is not going to be very strong this year, meaning that Atlantic temperatures will be only slightly below average.

So, what we want to say to you in this post overall is that it is not a good idea to  take the first forecast all the way.

If you  live anywhere near or on the coast, now is the time to start being prepared.

Since there is not much in the way of severe weather on the way for the Northeast, all we have to say is to enjoy the warm temperatures! (But still, stay safe!)

Colorado State releases first official predictions for Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015!

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Lets have a look at their first forecast (from Colorado State)

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015 Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses) Issue Date 9 April 2015 Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 7 Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) 30 Hurricanes (H) (6.5) 3 Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) 10 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 1 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) 0.5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) 40 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) 45

Basically that means that they expect a below-average Hurricane Season, with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.  Although Colorado State has been very accurate in the past, do not take the first official forecast as the final forecast, especially before all the other sources report their official forecast for Hurricane Season 2015 (NHC, NOAA, etc.)  The reason that Colorado may have set such a low expectation in terms of storms for this Hurricane Season may be due to the fact that there will be an El Nino, which normally hampers tropical development, but there is the possibility for some other enhancements to the season.

Even though at the moment the hurricane season, according to other sources will be around average, always be equally prepared for every Hurricane Season.  We will keep you posted as more information continues to arrive.

Start preparing for Hurricane Season if you live on or near the coast, and stay safe!

Enjoy the mild temperatures!

Dry conditions for everywhere but Maine in the Northeast for now…

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Before we get started, please take a few seconds to answer this poll.  We need your feedback!

If you visit our ‘Major Storm’ page, you will scroll down and see the radar only showing a lot of precipitation in Maine currently.  Our point is not that this is false, which it isn’t, but that these conditions wont be around for much longer.

The storm system moving through Maine was the same one from yesterday that dumped a lot of rain along the New England and Mid Atlantic.  The storm is mainly bringing snow and mixed precipitation to Maine now, along with some more snow in parts of Canada.

Back to our point

Our point is that there is the very large potential for a large and long rain event next week, so if you enjoy the outdoors while they are not filled with rain, go out now and enjoy them now, because those are the conditions that will be dominating the Northeast next week.

Stay safe!

The Latest: Special Announcement, Update on Papua New Guinea, Weather 360 news, and the warm up soon for the Northeast

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On this edition of our 7 PM EST post of ‘The Latest’  we will talk about the special announcement we promised we would release, an update on the 7.7 earthquake in Papua New Guinea along with the tsunami it triggered, and the warm up headed for the Northeast, specifically the NYC Metro Area, where temperatures could soar over fifteen degrees.

The Latest:  Final update of the Papua New Guinea earthquake and tsunami

The 7.7 magnitude earthquake on the Richter Scale that shook up parts of Papua New Guinea yesterday has caused tens of large, over 4.0, aftershocks that have reminded locals and travelers there that earthquakes don’t just affect several seconds.  The small and local tsunami created by the initial 7.7 earthquake was measured around two meters at it’s top in Papua New Guinea according to some reports.  Earthquakes such as the 7.7 in Papua New Guinea test the different tsunami warning centers every time they occur, this makes sure that when there are larger earthquakes and tsunamis that the warning centers are able to issue correct and more accurate watches, warnings, and advisories.

The Latest:  Warm up for the winter weary NYC, Boston, and the Northeast as a whole soon!

After the brutal winter and the morning snow has moved through the Northeast, many are hoping for a mild start to April across the I-95 Corridor.  The truth is though, that although over the next week there will be more warmth and mild temperatures across the Northeast, there is the potential for some more cold to come in briefly overt the next two weeks before being purged out of the Northeast by the springtime air.  Be ready for warmer temperatures, but be aware that there may be some more cold spells in store for the Northeast.

The Latest:  Weather 360 news along with our announcement

What Weather 360 would like to say is that our Hurricane Season 2015 cyclone prediction will be released BEFORE June 1st, meaning, with all the combined information from other organizations (ex: Colorado and NHC) along with several other different sources, Weather 360 will provide an official Hurricane Season 2015 cyclone preliminary prediction (number of cyclones only, ex: named, hurricanes, major hurricanes.)

Until then, stay safe!