Month: June 2015

TROPICAL STORM BILL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON

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This morning the NHC classified an area of disturbed weather with winds of 60 MPH with a well defined center of circulation as the second Tropical Storm of the year and the second Tropical Storm to make landfall this year in the United States, Tropical Storm Bill.  Currently, areas from the Louisiana border with Texas to the Mexican border near Brownsville are receiving some storm surge and winds in excess of 60 MPH along with torrential rains moving ashore.  The   NHC has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the Texan eastern coast.  Several computer models are hinting (if not all of them) at the possibility of this storm maintaining at the very least Tropical Depression status several hundred miles inland, possibly to areas as far from the coast as Illinois or Indiana.  This storm is also bringing torrential rains to traverse the country as an abundance of tropical moisture comes through via Tropical Storm Bill. So, over the following days, rain will continue to spread over hard hit areas by flooding just about a week and a half ago, potentially bringing back severe flooding to areas susceptible to flooding.

For anyone in areas that are on the coast in Texas that will be impacted by Tropical Storm Bill, remain indoors unless absolutely necessary, and if you just go outdoors, exercise extreme caution and heed all warnings set out by the NHC.

Stay safe!

WATCH OUT TEXAS! SOON TO BE TROPICAL STORM BILL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON

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Current Invest 91L (As of 7:00 PM EST June 15th 2015), is now expected to become Tropical Storm Bill later on this night before making landfall somewhere between Port Lavaca, Texas and Galveston, Texas.  This storm already has sustained winds of about 45 MPH and is quickly developing a more organized center of circulation.  This storm will dump anywhere between 2 and 8 inches of rain from the Texas coastline to Indiana and Ohio before losing all of its remaining moisture over land.  Current invest 91L will also likely maintain its strength for several hundred miles inland as a Tropical Storm with winds above 40 MPH and torrential rains until it reaches the Missouri border with Kansas. For anyone living on or near the coastline between Galveston and Port Lavaca, please consult the NHC or your local emergency management center, and for those who live near or on the shoreline of a river or stream that is prone to flooding, please keep yourself up-to-date with any advisories, watches, or even warnings that may come your way as a result of this storm system, and do not forget to finish up any emergency preparations before the storm hits you.

We will keep you up to date and for detailed information regarding the soon to be Tropical Storm Bill, consult first with the NHC, then come on over to our Hurricanes 360 page to see what we here at Weather 360 could do to help you ride out the storm.

Stay safe!

*We would also like to apologize for the mix up on our last post, Invest 91L is the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, Invest 90L was Tropical Storm Ana in early May before it developed.

SOON TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TO IMPACT THE TEXAS COASTLINE

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INVEST 90L IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON THE TEXAS COASTLINE.

In less than 3 days, current Invest 90L is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Depression or Storm and make landfall somewhere between Galveston, Texas, and the Louisiana border.  This storm is expected to not only bring some wind and some storm surge threats, but this storm will bring in enough moisture to cause intense rains and thunderstorms that may cause flooding.

Here’s a look at the GFS’s forecasted amount of  precipitation

GFS forecasted amount of rain for soon to be tropical depression two

As you can see, over the next 5 or so days, the moisture from the current Invest 90L will make its way through the central United States, before dumping the last of its rain on the majority of the Northeast and portions of Southeastern Canada.  Be on the lookout for heavy rains mid to late week next week in and around NYC.

For more information on Invest 90L, go to our Hurricanes page, and for emergency information for floods or tropical cyclone watches or warnings please refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and weather.gov.

NHC ups the odds for tropical development in the Gulf

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The NHC has increased the odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.  This morning, the odds for tropical entity development in the Gulf of Mexico according to the NHC has been raised to about 20% over the next five days.  This area of tropical disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and drift into the central, western Gulf of Mexico, where it will have the opportunity to develop and strengthen (slightly), before moving over land somewhere on the United States Gulf of Mexico shore.

There are several different outcomes that may occur for this tropical disturbance.   Outcome one: The GFS computer model along with the ECMWF (The European computer model) are expecting this storm to stay as a weak tropical wave and only bring some moisture and wind to the Gulf Coast.                                                                                   Outcome two: This outcome, mainly promoted by the CMC computer model with some others, suggests that the disturbance will develop into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast (likely somewhere in between New Orleans and Brownsville (TX).

At the moment, tropical development is still not extremely likely, but we will keep an eye on this storm over the next several days.

Another disturbance forming in the Atlantic?

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has created a watch area for a clump of thunderstorms beginning to develop a very weak low pressure.  The computer models have been suggesting that this clump of thunderstorms may develop and grow into some sort of tropical entity and bring some rain and wind to unknown portions of the western Gulf of Mexico Coast.

At the moment, we have not made an official prediction because the NHC is keeping this disturbance’s odds of development at 10%, although once this disturbance’s odds of development do come up, you can look for our official location and intensity forecast on our Hurricanes page.

NHC 5DAY CHART 6 12 15

This is the graphic set out to the public by the National Hurricane Center pertaining to today’s weather conditions across the Tropical Atlantic Basin.

We’ll keep you posted as more information on this disturbance arrives.

Slow start to the second full week of Hurricane Season 2015

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As Hurricane Season 2015 approaches the two and a half week mark, there is still no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.  Besides Ana about a month ago now, there has been NO tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

Why the slow start?

Well, in general, the peak of Hurricane Season is in early September, and if you look at your calendar right now, that is still about a whole 3 months away.  Anyways, June is normally not the most active month of any Hurricane Season, but from here on out to September, the probability of tropical development will be (on a historical average) increasing.  Not only this, but also at the moment there is no tropical enhancement wave (to put it more simply) over any portion of the Atlantic ocean.

That’s all for now, and we’ll keep you updated as Hurricane Season 2015 progresses!

The earliest landfall of a tropical cyclone on the Baja California in recorded history

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Hurricane Blanca, now Tropical Storm Blanca, and soon to be Tropical Depression Blanca, has made landfall on the Baja California north of Cabo San Lucas with winds of about 50 miles an hour, which has created some rough surf and dangerous rip currents in an around the area.

Tropical Storm Blanca was only about 48 hours ago a massive category three, major hurricane, with winds over 130 miles an hour, but due to the lower water temperatures near the Baja California, the storm rapidly weakened and will continue this weakening trend until becoming a remnant low that will bring some moisture to portions of the lower US, and possibly could have a slight affect on the Northeast, but nothing terribly significant.

ALERT!

Areas in and around NYC have TORNADO WATCHES posted.  A TORNADO WATCH means that conditions over a large portion of land are more favorable than average for the development of tornadoes, please check with the National Weather Service (NWS) on weather.gov for specific watches and warnings that may affect you.

Brace for more rain tomorrow in and around NYC

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Tonight, as more rain moves into our area, the set up for rain tomorrow is becoming increasingly likely.

Tomorrow, not only will heavy rains soak the NYC area, again, but there is the possibility for some severe thunderstorms as well.  Some of these thunderstorms may contain especially heavy rains and gusty winds, along with the possibility for some more small hail. The rains will last the majority of the day tonight and will likely impact both the morning and afternoon rush hours.

We’ll keep you posted