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Heavy rains and what!??

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Early next week a large rain event will spread from the Midwest and Southeast into the Northeast.  But what you may not have known is that the same rain event will bring some of the frozen, fluffy stuff to Maine.  Although not much is currently expected, the snow has the potential to cause some trouble on roadways (including I-95), from Monday evening on into early Wednesday.

Now back to the rainy side of this storm system.  Early on in the week the rain that will move in has the possibility to include some thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain, this threat exists from Maine nearly all the way down the Eastern Seaboard outside of the Northeast.

In this case both the ECMWF computer model and the GFS computer model are agreeing that there will be a large rain (and some snow) event in the Northeast early on this week.

We’ll keep you updated as more information comes out, but enjoy the above average temperatures tomorrow!

Warm temperature invasion tomorrow!

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For anyone who has been waiting for temperatures warmer than 70 degrees, tomorrow you’ll be glad.

Tomorrow across southern portions of the Northeast, temperatures could reach as high as 75 degrees.   Some of these areas include the following; New Jersey, All of Pennsylvania except very northwestern portions, The NYC Metro Area, and other parts of southern  New England.

For locations in the northern parts of the Northeast, temperatures will likely be at or above 50 degrees, warmer in areas in central portions of the Northeast though.

Although we would like to keep going on about the warmer, early summer-like temperatures, we would like to bring up that there is the possibility for a large rain event across the Northeast early on next week.  Also, if anyone wants to know, the warm temperatures will go away after that storm…

We’ll keep you updated, and stay safe!

April showers bring May flowers (and flies…)

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Of course, wet conditions rid an area of flies, well, at least for a bit before they come right back again.  With some showers expected tomorrow across the Northeast from Maine to New Jersey, bringing with them,  a brief, short period of time without many flies (a relief for some at least.  But, what can be frustrating is when as soon as the rain is done and the sun finally comes back out, the flies return.

Storm timing

Tomorrow the rain will start out in western portions of Pennsylvania and New York very early in the morning, (so around midnight), the rain in those areas should end around noon though, letting the sun and the flies return earlier on in the day.  For locations in the rest of the Northeast, the rain will start just before dawn, but still end before nighttime, allowing for some Mayflies to return before the sun completely sets.

Although the majority of the Northeast will experience mainly rain showers, there is the possibility for some brief periods of heavier rain and even thunder across the Eastern Seaboard.

Please exercise extra caution while outdoors tomorrow due to rain and some isolated thunderstorms.

Remember, at least the warm temperatures will stick around instead of leaving, again…

Elevated fire risk alerts today? Here’s why

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Fire risk NOAA 4 15 15

Image provided by the NOAA (Fire Weather Outlook for the next day)

Over the course of the last several hours, special weather statements (regarding fire danger) and red flag warnings have been being issued across the Northeast.  But first of all,  what does this mean?

Red flag warnings and special weather statements (regarding fire) normally mean that there is an elevated risk for wild or brush fire spread.

Okay, now that we know what that means, why is there a danger in the Northeast, who’s ever heard of a wildfire in the Northeast?

Well, due to low humidity and windy conditions, dry plants that may catch fire from a loose fire source (such as a match) will easily catch fire and quickly spread.  This makes even small, more easy to extinguish brush fires turn into larger, more violent fires fast.

So, please, even if you are not necessarily in one of the elevated risk areas shown above, exercise extra caution while dealing with a source of fire.

Have outdoor plans? It may be best to do them before the end of this upcoming weekend…

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No, it is not what you are probably thinking, this time around the big threat will not be cool temperatures, but this time the only threat to outdoor plans is the rain that may come this weekend.

Although the weekend is still a few days away, the likelihood of there being a rain event across the Northeast has been steadily increasing as the GFS computer model and the European computer model (ECMWF) have both been suggesting that there may be a low pressure system that may sweep across the Northeast United States sometime later this weekend or very early next week.

Will there be a severe front to this storm system?

Yes, at the moment it does appear to look as if there may be a severe side to this system.  Right now, the severe side looks mainly to be in southern and western portions of the Northeast (this could very easily change.)

Although there is the possibility of a severe side to this storm, in most of the Northeast, it appears at the moment to likely only to be rain and some thunder.

Be on the lookout for any short term forecasts or hazardous weather outlooks by the NOAA to see if your specific area may be at risk.

Stay safe!

More on Hurricane Season 2015

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As said in the previous post, according to the first seasonal outlook by Colorado State on this year’s Hurricane Season, there will be a below average Hurricane Season.  Although this source has been very accurate in the past, DO NOT,  DO NOT, take this as the final predictions for the upcoming Hurricane Season.  There are still many other sources to release their forecasts and even more forecasts from the same sources to come out over the next couple of months.

Weather 360 is still thinking that this Hurricane Season will be closer to average due to the fact that the El Nino is not going to be very strong this year, meaning that Atlantic temperatures will be only slightly below average.

So, what we want to say to you in this post overall is that it is not a good idea to  take the first forecast all the way.

If you  live anywhere near or on the coast, now is the time to start being prepared.

Since there is not much in the way of severe weather on the way for the Northeast, all we have to say is to enjoy the warm temperatures! (But still, stay safe!)

Colorado State releases first official predictions for Atlantic Hurricane Season 2015!

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Lets have a look at their first forecast (from Colorado State)

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2015 Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median (in parentheses) Issue Date 9 April 2015 Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 7 Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) 30 Hurricanes (H) (6.5) 3 Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) 10 Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 1 Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) 0.5 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) 40 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) 45

Basically that means that they expect a below-average Hurricane Season, with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.  Although Colorado State has been very accurate in the past, do not take the first official forecast as the final forecast, especially before all the other sources report their official forecast for Hurricane Season 2015 (NHC, NOAA, etc.)  The reason that Colorado may have set such a low expectation in terms of storms for this Hurricane Season may be due to the fact that there will be an El Nino, which normally hampers tropical development, but there is the possibility for some other enhancements to the season.

Even though at the moment the hurricane season, according to other sources will be around average, always be equally prepared for every Hurricane Season.  We will keep you posted as more information continues to arrive.

Start preparing for Hurricane Season if you live on or near the coast, and stay safe!

Enjoy the mild temperatures!

Okay, you can come out now, spring temperatures are really here!

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Spring is here!

For nearly all of New England and the Mid Atlantic, spring temperatures are here!

With temperatures in New York and Boston expected to soar into the upper 60’s and 70’s, spring must really be here to stay, right?

Well, at least for now, there is the possibility for a little cold dip in the next two weeks, but otherwise, spring temperatures will dominate.  Although this week will be somewhat soggy, spring temperatures will be around to make going outside at least in a way bearable…

For today and tomorrow though, spring is here, enjoy it while it lasts!

That’s really all for now with no large severe thunderstorm events expected over the next two days, so stay safe!

This weekend in the Northeast – ACTUAL SPRING CONDITIONS!

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Across the Northeast, rain and thunderstorms will begin to move out into Canada and the Atlantic.  With the storms exiting, warmer temperatures and clear skies will be entering.  Across most of New England and nearly the whole Mid Atlantic, temperatures will be right near or even slightly above average.  According to the GFS model along with most of the short range models and the European model, skies will stay mostly clear due to a large high pressure being situated over the area.

That’s all for now, but enjoy the clear skies and drier conditions while they last!

Woke up early this morning? Blame the thunder…

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This morning across the Northeast, thunderstorms have been disrupting the night.  Most of these thunderstorms may not even show up as thunderstorms on radar (but some do) because most of these storms only quickly flare up for a little while, creating enough thunder to disturb the night for many, but not being around or strong enough to be registered.  Even though temperatures in most of the Northeast are only slightly above freezing, thunderstorms are still occurring from Massachusetts to the Tri-State area.  That is also sometimes why there can be thunder snow in the winter, or as they call it in northern New England now, October through June…

If you have already heard about the tornadoes in the Mid West, we can assure you that although the likelihood for them in the Northeast is low, there is a slightly elevated chance in southern portions of the Northeast.

Stay safe!