September 2015 – Weather 360

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN TO STRENGTHEN AND IMPACT THE EAST COAST

September 30, 2015Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged connecticut, Delaware, East Coast Landfall, Hurricane Joaquin, Major Hurricane, Maryland, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, NHC Track, Rapid Strengthening, Rhode Island, Tropical Storm Joaquin, Virginia, Weather360Leave a comment

Overnight: Hurricane Warnings and Watches has been issued for The Bahamas, as Tropical Storm Joaquin is expected to strengthen to a hurricane shortly and impact The Bahamas over the next two to three days. The NHC track has also shifted to the west, with a track that has Hurricane Joaquin impacting The East Coast anywhere from New Jersey to Rhode Island this coming Monday or Tuesday.

Everyone from Virginia to Rhode Island should continue to monitor this storm and be prepared for every scenario for your area. Now is the time to make sure you have what you need in the event a hurricane impacts you.

The Models:

The current most popular trend with some of the more major, long range computer models, all try to bring this storm into locations just south of Delaware, but other major computer models such as the ECMWF and the TVCN (The most popular among the NHC) suggest a more easterly track, which will likely shift the current general trend back up to the north and east once more, but yet again, we can not predict this with 100% accuracy, for this storm has been rapidly strengthening so much, every single computer model seems to shift in every which direction every model run…

We’ll continue to monitor the storm for you – Weather360 9/30/15

Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Strengthen and May Impact East Coast

September 29, 2015Posted in Major Storm, Tropical CyclonesTagged 10-20 inches of rain, 3.A.S., Atlantic cyclone, Atlantic Hurricane Season, CMC, connecticut, Delaware, East Coast Hurricane Threat, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, Hurricane Joaquin, HWRF, Joaquin, Landfall Index, Level II Alert, Level III Alert, Maryland, Massachusetts, New England, New Jersey, new york, New York City Metro Area, Northeast, Rhode Island, Tropical Storm Joaquin, VirginiaLeave a comment

Over the past several computer model runs, Tropical Storm Joaquin has been shown to become a large, violent hurricane and impact the East Coast, potentially anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts. Although there is a ‘general’ trend that shows the storm turn into the US East Coast, there are major differences in exact strength and location.

ECMWF VS GFS:

The 12z run of the ECMWF and the 18z run of the GFS have some very major differences. For instance, the ECMWF shows a large and violent storm off of the coast of Florida, that quickly turns away out to sea and fizzles out over the open Atlantic. The GFS shows a less strong storm developing near The Bahamas over the next several days and moving up the coast to impact mostly Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware initially, before moving up as a weaker system towards the rest of the Northeast.

At the moment though, it seems no matter what situation occurs, more than 10 inches of rain is likely to fall across the Northeast before next Wednesday.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on this system as its track becomes more and more clear.

Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Joaquin Expected to Impact Northeast This Weekend

September 28, 2015Posted in Tropical CyclonesTagged 3.A.S., Atlantic Hurricane Season, connecticut, GFDL, Hurricane Preparedness, HWRF, Level II Enhanced Alert, Massachussetts, New England Coastline, New Jersey, new york, Northeast, Rhode Island, Tropical Depression Eleven, Tropical Storm JoaquinLeave a comment

Over the past two days, Weather 360 has been monitoring the development of newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven (soon to be Tropical Storm Joaquin.) Over the past 24 hours though, somewhat ludicrous information has been streaming out from many of the well regarded computer models. This information includes that of a named Tropical Storm or potentially Hurricane, impacting the New England Coastline later this week and into the weekend.

The Stats:

Tropical Depression Eleven is currently moving west at 5 MPH, and is expected to make a sharp northerly turn over the next 48 hours towards the East Coast. The current pressure is already 1003 Millibars, well ahead of the expected pressure and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with surface gusts reaching upwards of 40 MPH. The storm is located north and east of The Bahamas and may threaten the following locations with Tropical Storm force or above winds: Bermuda, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, and potentially New Hampshire, and Maine.

The Computer Models:

At the moment, many of the different computer models are suggesting pretty much what the NHC track as of 5:00 PM EDT/AST suggests, a sharp turn to the north and potentially a re-curve to the west straight into locations such as New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.

Please consult the National Hurricane Center and your emergency management office over the next few days as this becomes more and more certain to make your plan.

Happy Birthday Weather360!

September 19, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged Atlantic Hurricane Season, Weather, Weather 360, Weather News, Winter 2015-2016Leave a comment

Exactly one year ago, this website was opened to serve the Northeast United States and those with interests across the Tropical Atlantic Basin with the best weather forecasting service we could offer. One year later, Weather360 has reached almost 2,000 people, and has constantly improved our website interface and methods of weather prediction. Over the next year, we plan to start using several new methods of short and long term weather forecasting to ensure consistently accurate forecasts.

Thanks for your support- Weather360

Come back soon for an update on the current storms in the Tropical Atlantic Basin.

MAJOR 8.3 EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CHILE, TSUNAMI WATCHES TRIGGERED IN THE PACIFIC

September 16, 2015Posted in UncategorizedTagged 3.A.S., 8.3 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE STRIKES CHILE, earthquake, EARTHQUAKE IN CHILE, tsunami, Tsunami Watch in HawaiiLeave a comment

EMERGENCY STATEMENT FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE PTWC AT 2:00 PM HST

FOR THOSE WITH INTERESTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC BASIN, PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION

TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-170225-
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER   3
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
224 PM HST WED SEP 16 2015

TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 1254 PM HST 16 SEP 2015
   COORDINATES - 31.5 SOUTH   72.0 WEST
   LOCATION    - NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CHILE
   MAGNITUDE   - 8.3  MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 VALPARAISO CL        33.0S  71.6W  2350Z   1.62M /  5.3FT  40MIN
 CHANARAL CL          26.4S  70.6W  0010Z   0.67M /  2.2FT  34MIN
 JUAN FERNANDEZ       33.6S  78.8W  0008Z   0.97M /  3.2FT  08MIN
 COQUIMBO CL          30.0S  71.3W  2339Z   3.11M / 10.2FT  20MIN
 BUCALEMU CL          34.6S  72.0W  2334Z   0.46M /  1.5FT  24MIN
 CALDERA CL           27.1S  70.8W  2343Z   0.50M /  1.6FT  30MIN
 SAN ANTONIO CL       33.6S  71.6W  2358Z   0.86M /  2.8FT  18MIN
 DART 32402           26.7S  74.0W  2326Z   0.12M /  0.4FT  36MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
 THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
 FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
 IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

 IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
 THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

                     0311 AM HST THU 17 SEP 2015

FURTHER MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT UNTIL THE THREAT TO HAWAII HAS PASSED.

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