Est. September 2014
Today as the storms move out, clear skies and mild temperatures move in. In and around Manhattan, temperatures will max out around 65 degrees, with not much difference even in temperature in further north counties.
Although conditions will be nice today, tomorrow some more showers will be moving through later on in the day. Some of these showers could develop into a thunderstorm or two. So don’t put those umbrellas away yet, rain is still coming…
According to all the sources’ listed above April forecasts, there will be a below average Hurricane Season in the Tropical Atlantic Basin. The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) program is predicting anywhere in between 8 and 15 total named storms, 3 to 9 hurricanes, and of which 1 to 4 would be major hurricanes. What the TSR is predicting though is overall a 20% less active Hurricane Season than the historical long range average.
Here is what the overall highest percentage expectancy for all the sources mentioned (put together by Wikipedia)
| TSR | April 9, 2015 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| CSU | April 9, 2015 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| NCSU | April 13, 2015 | 4–6 | 1–3 | 1 |
An average Hurricane Season looks something more like this:
12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
So, you can see that there is some uncertainty in the exact number of storms there will be this Hurricane Season, but what all these programs are still urging is for anyone and everyone on or near the coast to be prepared for a possible hurricane strike, because it only takes one to create mass devastation.
For those about to be outdoors and driving, it my be a fairly good idea to bring along with you an umbrella if you already have not noticed…
The first large band of rain has already swept through the NYC Metro Area and will continue to move northeastward, whereas another, even larger band of heavy rain and thunderstorms is moving northeastward as well, straight towards the NYC Metro Area. Be on the lookout for the some thunderstorms, one or two of which may be severe, and also be careful while driving through heavy rain on roadways. Rain events such as this one are common throughout the spring season, but that doesn’t mean to neglect safety, so stay safe!
Tonight, a large storm system moving in from the south and west will begin to move into the NYC area. The storms will consist first of mainly rain, but then along with the rain, thunder and lightning will begin to set in. This was a short post to lay out what will mainly occur tomorrow to help you be prepared.
Stay safe!
Across the eastern portions of the US, rain and thunderstorms are moving northeastward, moving closer to their last US destination, the Northeast, that including the NYC Metro Area.
What do we think in terms of timing?
Tomorrow the heaviest rain and thunderstorms will likely occur near NYC around noon, but the rain will start a couple of hours earlier, steadily increasing until it beings to taper off around 4 PM (in the NYC Metro Area.) Although that rain will end before dusk, some thunderstorms on the back side of the system could impact some isolated areas later during the night tomorrow.
Over the next several days, a new system for forecasting that Weather 360 will be using will start to create more accurate and advanced forecasts.
We’ll keep you posted, stay safe!
For those who may not know, the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st and ends on November 30th.
Although this is only one computer model (GFS) and the latest possible hour run (384 hrs in advance), a possible tropical disturbance in one model still can, even if it is very far out, remind everyone that Hurricane Season is approaching.
Wait, what? The GFS model is predicting a tropical cyclone soon?
Well, at the moment since the time frame is extremely far our, this does not look likely, but the latest run of the GFS computer model for 384 hours is showing a small and weak disturbance near the Puerto Rico to the north. DO NOT, WE REPEAT, DO NOT, TAKE THIS AS A 100% GUARANTEE, because at the moment, the odds of this are extremely low. The point of this message though, is that Hurricane Season is literally around the corner, and that even outside of the Hurricane Season there still is the possibility for some tropical activity.
Weather 360 will keep you posted as more information comes out, but remember, at the moment, what the GFS computer model is showing has an extremely low chance of being anything significant. Although, it still is never to early to prepare for Hurricane Season if you live on the coast.
Across the NYC Metro Area (TOMORROW) some thunderstorms are expected to line up near NYC, some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe, causing delays and hazards on roadways and possibly some hail damage to vehicles and windows.
Tomorrow across the NYC Metro Area, temperatures will be right around 60 degrees along with the potentially severe and heavy rains.
Please exercise extra caution outdoors tomorrow and if a severe thunderstorms or a tornado watch or warning, take appropriate action, (meaning take cover immediately.)
Before this post wraps up, Weather 360 will be using a new system to derive our forecasts over the next week or so, hopefully and as expected, this new system will give more localized and more accurate forecasts for all of the 31 counties and 20 million people in and around New York City.
Stay safe, and enjoy the clear skies today!
In order to create much more accurate and detailed forecasts, Weather 360’s coverage area is downsizing to an area where most of those who use our website are, it is also the most populated metropolitan area in the Northeast United States and one of the largest in the country. The area we will be downsizing to is the New York City Metro Area. Weather 360 considers all areas that fall within the labeled map to be in the New York City Metro Area:
The NYC Metro Area, this map is from an assessment done by Columbia University recently. The area consists of 31 counties and more than 20 million people.
These changes will be going into effect immediately, but still, for anyone in areas across the Northeast with Red Flag Warnings, stay safe.
Although Weather 360 will now only cover weather for the NYC Metro Area, we still will be covering all the tropical disturbances every Hurricane Season for the Tropical Atlantic Basin.
Across the Northeast, the National Weather Service (NWS) has had to issue red flag warnings and hazardous weather outlooks due to the very dry (and warmer than average) conditions later on today creating the conditions that spread wild and brush fires due to any type of ignition. So, although today will be a very warm day, the NWS does not recommend anyone in the areas with red flag warnings or any type of advisory or alert to use matches or any type of ignition source outdoors due to risk of fire spread. So please refer to weather.gov to see if your area is at risk today.
So, enjoy the above average temperatures today, but be aware that there is an elevated risk for the spread of fire today.
Tomorrow across the Northeast warmer and milder temperatures will flood in and bring some areas’ first taste of summer.
Temperatures from Boston to New York should hover around 70 to 75 degrees whereas areas further north, high temperatures will be mainly from 55 to 65 degrees. Areas in southern parts of the Northeast will likely be in the mid to upper 70’s.’
That’s all for now, and stay safe!
Weather 360 