What can make a winter storm forecast incorrect?
In winter storm forecasts there can be many different reasons for an inaccurate weather prediction out out by a weather organizations. One of these reasons is likely the most common one, some organizations pick and choose one particular forecast model(s) they think are the most accurate but then the forecast model just happens to have gotten the forecast for that one storm wrong. Occurrences such as the one just explained can happen creating mistrust between some forecast models and weather organizations which can lead to more in accurate predictions. The best way any organizations can likely avoid that is to compare most if not all of the forecast models available at the same level first, then weigh the forecast slightly so the more accurate forecast models have a little more in the say in what may happen in a particular storm. In rare occurrences such as one that occurred in the New York City Metro Area very recently was the “Blizzard of 2015” which was expected until several hours after the storm started, to dump over two feet of snow in places in Southwestern Connecticut. The next day the weather services happened to see that only about ten inches of snow actually fell during the storm with barely any wind. In that storm nearly all the major models got it wrong, but in the following storms, several forecast models which got the “Blizzard of 2015” very wrong, got the very next storm very right, this can happen often so the best way to go if you are creating a weather prediction is to take most if not all forecast models available into account.